Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the political, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in universities but very few government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two essays that seek objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the idea that there could be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a negligent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has got valuable insights to gain from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
