Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: positive announcements are issued from various governments. Considerable effort is expended on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from across the border, a capability provided through up-to-date information. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to intercept incoming guided weapons flew past – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: several firings deployed against a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably supplied through Western nations. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly gives way to grim resignation: maybe the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a automatic firearm fired at a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: several casualties, devastation and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a dependence that European nations are clearly incapable to fill in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership provoked deep reactions, debate and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new proposal from US leadership unfolds according to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, undoubtedly, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership works based on a premise understood by international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration believes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to surrender the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does nothing to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from believing that the situation will not shift further in its favour in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing people and territory but preventing a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its favour.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: political desires to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not switch to internal issues. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to terminate the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, primarily depend on continued Western support.
